Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. House, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats. As a result of apportionment, six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained seats in the U.S. The 2022 election will be the first to take place following apportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. For more information about special elections to the 117th Congress, click here. House will be held throughout the year to fill vacancies that occur in the 117th Congress. Senate seat is also up for regular election in 2022, for a total of 35 individual Senate seats up. The other special election will be held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2016. Inhofe announced his resignation effective January 3, 2023. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. One special election will be held to fill the final four years of Sen. Senate are scheduled for November 8, 2022. The seats of five of the six non-voting members of the U.S. Congress (34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 8, 2022. He was most recently a deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs at the White House.A total of 469 seats in the U.S. Michael McKenna, a columnist for The Washington Times, co-hosts “The Unregulated” podcast.Sometimes survey results are just propaganda, and not even subtle propaganda. Those who release them are intentionally trying to create the illusion that the election contests are closer than they actually are. Raphael Warnock leads by an average of 3% among surveys of likely voters, while Republican Herschel Walker leads by an average of 1% among surveys of registered voters.Īt this point in the cycle - less than 90 days to election day and the close of voting - surveys of registered voters are, essentially, useless for all purposes except propaganda. There, brand awareness is no doubt affecting the survey results, as Democratic Sen. The lone exception to all of this is the Senate race in Georgia. In most other cases, there are simply not enough survey results available. Marco Rubio a modest 3.3% lead on average, while surveys of likely voters give him a more generous 9.5% advantage on average. Similarly, in Florida, surveys of registered voters give Republican Sen. At the same time, surveys of likely voters give a very small advantage (.3%, on average) to her competitor, Republican Adam Laxalt. In Nevada, surveys of registered voters give an almost 7% advantage (on average) to Democratic Sen. Publicly available survey work on the Senate is harder to come by, so comparisons are difficult. That indicates a majority that looks like 235 seats for the Republicans in the next Congress. However, it seems reasonable to assume that the Republicans’ current advantage on the generic ballot is midway between zero and 7.5%. Democrats are outraising Republicans in most places, and when you look at the individual races, it is tough to come up with more than three dozen truly competitive races that the Republicans might win. The notion that the Republicans are going to net 65 or 75 seats this cycle is absurd and ungrounded. That advantage is not, however, insuperable. In short, when you focus on results from the more precise surveys, the Republicans have a decided advantage.
#MIDTERM POLLS PLUS#
The average result for the ballot test in these surveys of likely voters is about plus 7% for the Republicans. In these surveys, the Republicans led the generic ballot test in 32 of them. The 33 reported surveys of likely voters tell a very different story. The average result of these surveys of registered voters is about plus. In comparison, surveys of registered voters are sort of the lowest common denominator because they don’t account for who might actually vote.Īmong the 107 surveys of registered voters, the Democrats led the generic ballot test in 46, the Republicans led in 47, and there have been 14 ties. They are better predictors of election outcomes because they include people who routinely vote, who follow the news, etc. Surveys of likely voters are more relevant to campaigns and election outcomes.
The remaining 33 are from surveys of likely voters. Of those, 107 are from surveys of registered voters.
From the beginning of 2022 until a few days ago, there are 140 surveys that had generic ballot test results reported on RCP’s site. If you examine the results of the generic ballot questions in surveys included on the Real Clear Politics website, an interesting and probably not accidental pattern emerges.
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